This opinion article was written by GWSC Human-Environmental Analyst, Penny Beames.

The Lake Chad region has captured international attention as an example of how water scarcity can drive conflict. Prevailing wisdom states that decades of low rainfall and water over extraction have shrunk the lake, and that livelihood impacts brought about by this new lack of water have given rise to the region’s ongoing security crisis, including Boko Haram.  

Yes, violence is a real concern in the Lake Chad region and its people have suffered greatly because of changes to their water supply. But establishing a direct causal link between water scarcity and the emergence of violent extremist organizations like Boko Haram is nearly impossible.  

That said, we can draw links between water issues and increases in their ranks. The Lake Chad region witnessed a long decline in rainfall from a peak in the 1970s to present day. Periodic droughts have become common. But so too have floods like that in 2022, which displaced more than a million people.  

How are these seemingly opposite phenomena related? Both can expose a government’s inability or unwillingness to address water-related problems that affect its citizens. 

In drought, urban taps run dry and crops whither for lack of irrigation. In floods, homes and fields are damaged or destroyed. Citizens who believe their government hasn’t lived up to its responsibility to protect them may feel betrayed and angry.  Studies show that such disturbances can drive citizens to join rebel groups that promise protection governments can’t provide and retribution against governments who let them down. 

Here, the link between water and rebel strength is indirect—it flows first through livelihood impacts and then through a sense of grievance, which is leveraged by rebel groups who offer an antidote to that grievance.   Governments, development bodies, and NGOs may benefit from integrating this indirect link into any plans to tackle violent extremist organizations in Lake Chad as projections show that such disturbances are increasing. 

Over the next 10 years, heavy rain days that can cause flooding are projected to triple. And though annual rainfall is projected to increase, dry spells in the rainy season may persist, which stress livestock and rainfed agriculture. 

So, while water scarcity may not explain why groups like Boko Haram came to form in the Lake Chad region, water disturbances can explain why some people join them. And, unless water provision and flood protection are bolstered in the coming years, increasing floods and droughts may just boost recruitment.